Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 37.780187 40.961221 44.469764 48.663657 53.591171 59.263174 66.386797
2025-08-17 32.716669 36.714229 41.408783 47.443374 55.177002 65.038376 79.089891
2025-08-24 29.915272 34.267587 39.578280 46.730159 56.451310 69.802548 90.829559
2025-08-31 27.794080 32.326621 38.019029 45.967695 57.299673 73.882157 102.515675
2025-09-07 26.803431 31.656217 37.932801 47.037067 60.709658 82.228278 123.882904
2025-09-14 25.480673 30.416814 36.934843 46.652742 61.825499 87.108894 141.040664
2025-09-21 24.125603 29.023740 35.590677 45.584771 61.661252 89.698427 154.665119
2025-09-28 22.914962 27.742360 34.295718 44.441260 61.180435 91.562836 167.604765
2025-10-05 22.685771 27.775354 34.840756 46.125851 65.651370 103.972941 217.098353
2025-10-12 22.270235 27.514137 34.927047 47.077963 68.975981 115.107812 276.425883
2025-10-19 21.771544 27.100490 34.748829 47.565491 71.503187 125.331780 350.168710
2025-10-26 21.187607 26.530120 34.290929 47.529658 72.996020 133.581701 435.113160
2025-11-02 20.409179 25.664125 33.364389 46.671597 72.837537 137.853096 514.943367
2025-11-09 19.653494 24.801380 32.399795 45.675703 72.275223 140.952551 604.474760
2025-11-16 19.025620 24.098813 31.644884 44.984698 72.262411 145.774238 747.529323
2025-11-23 18.438828 23.432925 30.912415 44.274201 72.108088 150.195246 939.673604
2025-11-30 18.253865 23.357753 31.111807 45.275235 75.984277 170.353380 2019.672916
2025-12-07 17.804947 22.863943 30.606864 44.915478 76.611996 179.156404 3871.483677
2025-12-14 17.257391 22.200809 29.795544 43.914729 75.543520 180.734406 6420.996770
2025-12-21 16.725819 21.546091 28.972734 42.842012 74.176203 180.637907 11450.669215
2025-12-28 16.725923 21.705779 29.498869 44.421880 79.797647 216.359653 NaN
2026-01-04 16.595135 21.655815 29.669418 45.313612 83.843200 250.010090 NaN
2026-01-11 16.394110 21.487343 29.628400 45.769890 86.797102 282.117016 NaN